Water resources and climate change
How do we put focus on the integration of climate, hydrology and management assessments on urban and peri-urban water resources downscaled from IPCC climate model future scenarios? The first part of the research will explore combinations of climate change and land-use scenarios and their impacts of addressing water insurance models in order to propose new index of vulnerability, adaptation tradeoffs and mitigation policies in the long-term. The second part of the work will analyze the components of real, virtual water balance derived from scenarios of climate change generated by CCST/INPE. Thus indicators of vulnerability and adaptation based upon virtual water balance, with either structural or non-structural measures, to mitigate water resources` impacts can be established. The outline of feasible guidelines for adaptation and compensation towards sustainability through decentralized management of water resources in the context of scenarios of climate change are here proposed.
The main objective of the project is proposing adaptation mechanisms at two fronts: insurance models and virtual water balance. These objectives are ranged into long-term and short-term steps. Long term objectives are: (1) to develop insurance models as mitigating devices for reducing vulnerability of water risks derived upon long-term scenarios, and (2) to perform a decentralized management of virtual water balance as adaptation measure under climate change scenarios. On the other hand, the short-term objectives are (3) study threshold factors of water vulnerability and risks in river basins, either under long-term scenarios and even for early-warning systems; (4) modeling hydraulic & hydrological tests of vulnerability thresholds under different scenario conditions at several scales of river catchments, and (5) adapting water scenarios of vulnerability mitigation of community and society. This Project is developed in partnership among EESC/USP, ICMC/USP, IAG/USP e INPE/CEMADEN.